Different forecast types for the stage of product development

Top Box Associates understands that forecasting isn’t just about the number – we can also help you pick the real winners, optimize the offering, and size the marketing plan to maximize launch sales potential and/or profitability.
  • Seasoned forecasters generate accurate sales forecasts for market segments, new brands, line extensions, relaunches, and even new categories
  • A consistent framework across the new product development continuum means you can quantify improvements at each stage of research
  • We offer sound research practices and forecasting expertise on a global basis – forecasting experience in 31 countries; these markets account for more than 90% of new product sales
  • Our clients – new product developers – make smarter, more informed business decisions

Competitive landscape services:

Market Sizing: Estimate total market size (number of users and revenue)
  • Estimate the all-outlet sales of a particular market or market segment
  • Size strategic segments in terms of demographics, channels of distribution, psycho-graphic, need states, or other core targets
  • Size new product entries in one or more target market segements

New product services:

Box Scores: Normative database comparisons
  • Key measure comparisons
  • Singular concept strength metric - Concept Potential Index (CPI)
  • Diagnostic insights
 
Concept Screener Tests: Simplified forecasts, quickly, and economically
  • Normative database comparisons
  • Simplified marketing plans
  • Topline forecasts of sales

Concept and/or Concept-Product Tests: Concept/product development and optimization
  • Normative database comparisons
  • Detailed marketing plans 
  • Comprehensive volume forecasts of sales (trial & repeat)
  • Source of business / incrementality 

Relaunch or Repositioning Tests: Change in existing product or its positioning
  • Normative database comparisons
  • User (alienation risk) and Non-user attraction analysis
  • Changes in volume from the status quo
  • Detailed marketing plans

Forecast capabilities:

New products portfolio analysis
Incrementality/cannibalization
Word-of-mouth
Social media influence
Global/international
Integrated with conjoint/DCM
Linkage with shopper insights
Line/flavor/menu optimization 
Staggered launch
"What if..." forecasts
Virtual shelf and shopping
Test market projections
Line extensions
Positioning changes
Brand extensions
Marketing budget sensitivity
Source of volume
Packaging
Claims testing
Rx-OTC switch cases
DTC lift and ROI analysis
Product reformulations
Pricing
Multi-year estimates
Marketing plan optimization
Order-of-entry  
Channel strategy

Promotion Response:

Promotion analysis: Isolate the short-term and long-term impacts of particular promotions
  • Measure incremental lift in sales following the deployment of a targeted marketing program
  • Separate sales lift by new customer acquisitions and future sales
  • Decompose lift into target groups of interest
  • Estimate short/long-term Return-on-Investment (ROI) of the program